Thursday, April 28, 2011

Fact-Checking the Hockey-Stick Graph

Two years ago, Climategate exploded onto the front pages of papers everywhere.  Deniers claimed a victory after someone hacked into the email accounts of several scientists and showed the men behind the screen.  Shockingly, they were men who voiced frustration with deniers and said somethings in private that they probably wouldn't have in public.  Whoa!  Stop the Presses!

Deniers also latched onto to one phrase about playing tricks with the data to hide a finding that they did not like.  The scientists who have presumably been studying climate science and statistics for a very long time, talked about ignoring tree ring data after 1960 as those data were inconsistent with measured temperatures.  Deniers claimed that this was evidence of a massive conspiracy in the global warming community.

Seven independent groups went over their emails and data and all reached the same conclusion: the science was still strong.  The scientists may have acted unprofessionally in their private communications, but they did solid work.  While the Climategate scandal made every front page, the exoneration of the scientists were relegated to the science sections, if the paper had one.
One idea under scrutiny was the "hockey-stick" graph showing a rapid increase in CO2 after the 1950s with a corresponding increase in global temperature averages.  Actually, every index that affects our climate shows the exact same uptick after World War II.  Mother Jones did a piece on Climategate that is worth reading.  One of their fact-checkers made this video.  Hopefully, some information from this video can arm you against the ignorance of the climate change deniers.

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